Ever wonder if a research paper is destined to be a big deal long before it actually becomes one? Researchers at Cornell University think they have figured out how to tell, and it comes down to something as simple as downloads.
The team published new datasets pulled from arXiv, the go-to repository for unreviewed research papers, and GitHub, the platform coders use to store and share their projects. The goal is to test “lead-lag forecasting,” a method that uses early engagement, including views, downloads, and likes, to predict which papers or projects will matter years down the line.
Why does this even work?
Right now, a paper’s importance is…
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