Toyota’s $6.4bn robotics estimate puts physical AI in focus

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Toyota Motor estimates that expanding automation across its factories, group companies, and major suppliers could require around 400,000 robots and annual spending of about 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion) from 2028.

The potential investment was discussed with investors earlier in September, according to Reuters. Toyota has not said whether the full investment will proceed or how many years spending at that level would continue.

The 400,000 figure includes replacements for existing machines and new robot installations, covering humanoid and non-humanoid systems. The potential investment spans industrial robots, automated logistics, and future human-robot collaboration on factory floors.

Toyota already uses and tests robotics across several manufacturing processes. In its FY2026 financial results, the company listed factory demonstrations involving parts transportation and parts picking, alongside robotics work in areas such as medical equipment transportation.

Toyota builds on earlier automation work

At Toyota’s Kamigo Plant, a piston assembly line that began operating with robots in January 2025 has since moved from three operators to full automation, according to Toyota’s 2025 integrated report.

The plant’s automation work began much earlier. It started introducing robots on selected sub-lines in 2008, but the company later encountered maintenance constraints as it expanded engine production overseas.

Toyota said some overseas facilities lacked enough skilled maintenance workers to support the automated equipment. Some processes were consequently returned to manual production while manufacturing knowledge from Japanese plants was transferred to overseas sites.

Workers then developed jigs and tools that Toyota said could double or triple efficiency in some manually operated processes. Knowledge accumulated through that work was later used in the development of newer automated production systems, including the piston assembly line at Kamigo.

Toyota is also developing systems that can handle parts without requiring them to be positioned precisely in advance. Its KumiPro parts-picking robot uses cameras to identify and handle loosely positioned components and is already operating on production lines at Toyota Motor East Japan.

Toyota has demonstrated an assembly process in which force-feedback control compensates for recognition errors from the cameras. The robot can adjust its movement while inserting components into narrow spaces, compensating for differences between camera recognition and the physical position of an object.

Toyota develops physical AI for production environments

Toyota uses the term physical AI to describe technology that allows robots to perceive their surroundings through sensors, learn or optimise their actions according to a situation, and operate autonomously.

Toyota said its Frontier Research Center is addressing labour shortages and skill transfer through robotics, including applications at production sites. The centre’s work includes technologies developed through its Human Support Robot programme.

Toyota said object recognition, decision-making, and motion-execution technologies from the Human Support Robot programme have been applied to KumiPro at Toyota Motor East Japan.

Toyota is also developing ELEY, or Embodied Learning robot for Enhanced Yield, for tasks involving physical contact with objects and the surrounding environment. The robot uses two human-like arms and an omnidirectional mobile base and is designed to cope with external forces that can occur when a machine encounters an object at a position different from what it expected.

Toyota has identified long-duration reliability, repeatability in reaching precise positions, and the data infrastructure required for robot learning as areas that still need work. It plans to test ELEY under conditions closer to production sites and use both successful and unsuccessful attempts as training data.

Toyota is separately using reinforcement learning to train humanoid robots in simulated environments before transferring learned behaviour to physical machines. The company runs thousands of simulated robot instances in parallel to speed up the learning process.

Toyota said movements that work in simulation do not always transfer directly to physical hardware because conditions such as sensor readings, floor friction, and actuator behaviour differ. Researchers introduce variations in those conditions during training and use data from physical robots to narrow what Toyota describes as the Sim2Real gap.

Toyota Research Institute is also working with Boston Dynamics on AI control systems for the Atlas humanoid robot. In 2025, the organisations demonstrated Atlas completing a sequence of walking, lifting, sorting, and packing tasks using a single Large Behavior Model, with robot skills added through human demonstrations.

Japan was the world’s second-largest market for industrial robots in 2024, with about 450,500 robots in operation and another 44,500 installed during the year, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

Japan’s automotive industry installed about 13,000 industrial robots in 2024, up 11% from the previous year and the highest annual total since 2020.

Toyota’s 400,000 estimate is broader than IFR’s industrial-robot figures because it includes replacement equipment and multiple types of robots across Toyota, group companies, and major suppliers.

Hyundai Motor Group has set a timetable for deploying humanoid robots in automotive production. It plans to introduce Atlas at Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America in Savannah, Georgia, beginning in 2028, initially for parts sequencing before expanding into component assembly from 2030.

Hyundai said it will expand Atlas into additional manufacturing processes after validating individual applications. The group has also set a target of establishing annual production capacity for as many as 30,000 robots by 2028.

Boston Dynamics, which develops Atlas, is controlled by Hyundai Motor Group, which bought a controlling stake in the robotics company in 2021. Boston Dynamics also separately works with Toyota Research Institute, with the research partnership combining Atlas with TRI’s Large Behavior Models.

(Photo by HY ART)

See also: Gartner outlines four AI tiers in warehouse automation

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