AI could add to fossil fuel emissions in a less obvious way than power-hungry data centers: by making oil and gas production cheaper and more productive. New research suggests those gains could outweigh some of AI’s benefits for cleaner energy.

The peer-reviewed research in npj Climate Action modeled AI-driven productivity gains across fossil fuels and renewable energy. Across 64 scenarios, researchers estimated a net annual increase of 0.47 billion to 1.8 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide when AI improved both sectors. The results represent modeled economic effects, not measured emissions or forecasts for individual companies or…

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